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At first, Trump seemed to take a resolute stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "severe consequences" in August should Putin persisted hindering ceasefire discussions, the former president ultimately enacted major restrictions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially affected the Russian leader's capacity to support his war effort in the region.

However, with his latest comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly created by US and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or EU participation, he has seemingly reverted to his pro-Putin approach.

Benefiting Military Action

This initiative would essentially benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in danger. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative actually compromise that very sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate past, the former president seems to view the war as a simple border issue, like handing Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will please the president. However, Putin's war is not simply about controlling a damaged region of economically weakened territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent goal to weaken it so it ceases to serves as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the accountable governance that his growing dictatorship denies them.

Land Concessions

Although maintaining in status the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would force Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk region. Beyond benefiting Russia with territory that its troops have been failed to seize in more than a ten years of conflict, this concession would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that represent a essential obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, leaving Putin a unobstructed route to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to renew the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would make additional fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to cut the size of its armed forces from their existing large number personnel to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan sets no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to portray the nation's legitimate administration as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "Any extremist doctrine and practices must be opposed and prohibited." As if to underscore this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "enter other states" and to "establish in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has broken similar accords in the history – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international security guarantees. Although the plan promises a "immediate joint military response" should the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars range from fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just deny the nation Nato membership but also prevent member states from stationing forces on the nation's land, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from replenishing his reduced military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

A separate parallel deal reportedly would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. However unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's primary protection against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of Western powers, such as the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not