🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the current competition is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still