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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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